Any thoughts on longshot Conveyance, from Bobby Baffert's barn?
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/conveyance
A couple slight similarities to last years Derby winner Mine that Bird, in that he has a high dosage index number, second highest in the field and prepped in the Sunland Derby.
Baffert is a great trainer and Conveyance is one of the few in the field who has gone over or come close to a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, earning a 96 in the Southwest at Oaklawn, showing he can run on dirt too and a 99 in an allowance win at Hollywood back in November. Interesting he was running a 99 in November and still has room to improve.
The NY Daily news odds-maker had him at 20-1 … see what Mike Battaglia or whoever is the Churchill morning line odds-makers has him or what post he gets.
He’s out of Indian Charlie who although well bet himself in the Kentucky Derby didn’t fare too well, but he did have a rough trip. Conveyance seems speedy and maybe will try wire to wire or would be interesting to see if he can rate.
Any thoughts on this longshot from Baffert?
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July 7th, 2010 at 7:00 am
Conveyance will be doing what he does best, and that is running like a fine tuned machine. He has the uncanny ability to run 22.0 splits all day long without slowing down. Alot of people are counting him out as they assume that he hasn’t the stamina to go the longer derby distance. Granted, he has only gone more than a mile once and that was at the Sunland Derby. And, might I add, he had a very respectable 2nd place finish (undefeated up until that point), beaten only by the I "feelgoodtoday" long shot, Endorsement. He was still battling down the stretch and was only beaten by 3 lengths. The shocker here is, that Conveyance blew the rest of the field away. Not too shabby for a first time route race eh? And nobody thought he could go over a mile! He will be in better condition and in a good position coming out of the number 12 hole (dead center). If the track is out of condition, watch out! as I think he may like the slop as shown in his last work (breezed 59 sec. for 5 furlongs). Bobby B. is real happy with his last 2 closing works and says that he is back to his old self. I am also cheering Conveyance on for sentimental reasons as well :- ) Both grandsires "Holly Bull" and "In Excess" were HOTY candidates. Holly Bull getting the award and only one bad showing in the BC by In Excess kept him from receiving the award in 1991. And, if it means anything, as Conveyance’s dam "emptythetill’s" name implies, "There just may be a robbery a happenin’ at this years Derby"…….The "papoose" is loose!
**Added thoughts….. Odds makers and the general public have Conveyance at long odds and are banking on the fact that he can’t handle the distance. I ask, what info does one look at to make such an assumption. Are they using his one and only first time at more than a mile in the Sunland Derby as their basis? If so, they may be in for a surprise. One race does not constitute the fact that he can’t go for longer than a mile. He has already proven that he can go the distance and with a very impressive 2nd place finish no doubt. You can’t use one race to determine what a horse will do in the future. He had never been tried in the longer routes before the Sunland. If anything, that Sunland race shows that he can and will be much improved for his next outing. You can count on Bobby B having him in top form this Saturday. He may go wire to wire as usual, as he don’t take too kindly at another horse being in front of him when he does his job. But, who knows, he may stalk just off the pace and show the racing world a kick they have never seen before in the stretch run! Wouldn’t that be a helluva finish! :- )…Conveyance runs like his grandsire "In Excess" used to do. Hopefully, the blood runs thick!
…Billy Ray
July 7th, 2010 at 7:00 am
gotta see post first. beyers are overrated.
July 7th, 2010 at 7:00 am
You gave some really great points…Conveyance has natural ability, and a great trainer who won the derby 3 times.. Since we don’t really know how the race is going to unfold is makes handicapping the derby tough..Conveyance has a one way type of running style, and with plenty of other speed horses, we are pretty much going to see a fast pace, and because of the other speed horses in the field, he’ll probably be under the gun from the start. Plus from what I read Conveyance has a modest 218 Tomlinson Figure for distance, so there’s a good chance he won’t be able to carry his speed this far. He lost in New Mexico going 11/8 miles and that will weigh on handicappers minds. Strategy seems clear that he’ll be sent to the lead and then see how far he can go…Conveyance may even set up stable mate Lookin At Lucky…I wouldn’t count Conveyance out, he certainly has a good chance of being in the money.