Can I beat the bookies in Sports betting? did it ever happen before?

5 Responses to “Can I beat the bookies in Sports betting? did it ever happen before?”

1. pdq Says:
   August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am

   Good answer Paul. Let me explain a little more clearly.

   First of all, you’ve got to know that only around 1% of folks who gamble on sports do so profitably. Can sports be beaten? Yes, but just your asking this question tells me that it is HIGHLY unlikely that you will ever be one of these people.

   Back to what Paul was talking about. He said, "secret is to bet when you know the odds are generous".

   In other words, you need to know when a sports line is FLAWED. You need to do the research of the teams, the conditions, the coaches, the players….SO MUCH.

   Here’s an example: An American football game with Team A vs. Team B. The lines show Team A -3 1/2. But in your research of the game, you strongly believe Team A should only be -2 1/2. So you bet on Team B since Team B is getting 1 more point than what they ought to be.

   Same example, but this time Team A is -1 1/2 from the bookies. You still feel Team A should be -2 1/2, so instead you bet on Team A! You strongly feel they will win the game with more points than what the bookies are giving, so it’s a strong bet.

   If you do your research and figure out that Team A should be -2 1/2, and the bookies are putting Team A at -2 1/2, then you DON’T PLAY THAT GAME! Even if the bookies have it at -2 or -3, it’s still not enough of a "FLAW" in the line to make betting on that game profitable.

   Another example. Also American football. Teams C & D are playing. You determine Team C should be -13, but the bookies have it as -14. This time the line is so big, that you STILL might want to avoid playing this game! If the bookies had it at -15 or -16, then you might consider betting on Team D. If the line were -10 or -11, then you’d put some money on Team C.

   This is what profitable betting is all about in sports. 99% of the people who bet on sports either just go with their "gut", or go with their favorite team, OR THEY FOOL THEMSELVES! They fool themselves into thinking that they actually CAN figure out lines better than the bookies, but in reality they can’t.

   One more VERY important point. Some people CAN do this well, but they STILL lose money. Why??? Because they lack discipline. Here’s one final example to illustrate that point:

   Team E vs. Team F. You figure Team E should be -6, but the bookies have it listed at -12!!! YOU KNOW YOU’RE RIGHT!!! You know there is something about this team that the bookies didn’t consider. Perhaps you’ve got some inside information that the star running back is hurt and won’t play!

   What do you do?!?!? YOU POUNCE on this game! You call it a "LOCK". You bet heavy on Team F +12 since there is NO WAY that team could possibly lose by 12 points!!! IT’S A LOCK!!!

   Guess what? It turns out you’re right! The running back doesn’t play and the line plummets to -6 just like you thought! But you already got your bet in at the bookies for -12! You’re feeling fantastic, and you bet 75% of your bankroll because you had this "can’t lose" wager!!!

   Then at the game, Team E rallies without the star running back and wins by 17 points! You just decimated your bankroll, even though your thinking was 100% correct!

   ANY TEAM can win or lose on ANY given day. If you ever believe in such a thing as a "lock", you’ll go broke.

   *****

   OK – so this is WAY more than what you were looking for, I’m sure. Bottom line, sports betting CAN be beaten. It is HIGHLY unlikely that YOU will be able to beat it, however.

2. Thanatopsis Says:
   August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am

   A punter is one who is into the prostitution scene(or punts the ball in American football). It has nothing to do with gambling.

   But if you have to ask on here whether or not you should become a professional gambler, then you clearly don’t know enough about it and will just lose all your money.

3. Ambassador Soval Says:
   August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am

   I believe what you meant to say was you are thinking of turning into a professional gambler. As for advice, I don’t gamble, but if you have the funds, then sports betting is really simple. You just use Arbitrage to place your bets. Just make sure to pick a good selection of bookies, and to place your bets logically.

4. Paul Says:
   August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am

   bookies can be beaten by researching your field, secret is to bet when you know the odds are generous,long term this pays off.but you have to know your onions.

5. mrwizard9090 Says:
   August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am

   a properly run sports book has no skin in the game. the line is adjusted until equal action on both sides is achieved. at that point the losers pay the winners and the book. the book could care less who wins.

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