Gomez on POTN. Good decision or not?
alright Garret Gomez has chosen POTN to ride in the Kentucky Derby. do you think that this was a good choice or should he have picked Dunkirk? and do you think his decision was solely based on who he thinks has the best chance to win or was there behind the scene politics involved?
lastly, do you feel as i do that the big news conference that he held to announce his decision seemed a bit dramatic and egotistical? it just seemed over the top to me. your feelings?
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July 14th, 2010 at 9:37 am
If I was Garrett, I would have chosen Pioneer too. Dunkirk is unproven, never won a stakes race, doesn’t have the 2 year old foundation or even a deep 3 year old foundation, has never been in a big field where he was in a crowded spot checking off heals and such. I wasn’t aboard the Dunkirk train from the beginning and I wouldn’t hop aboard it now. To me, Garrett made the obvious choice. The only thing I worry about with Pioneer is that they want him to be in a race with more pace so he has a target to run at… but he’s never had that kind of race before… they’re saying he’ll be good in that kind of a race, but it’s definately not a sure thing. In my opinion, neither of these horses is going to win the race… however, for the Derby, I’d much rather put my money on Pioneer than on Dunkirk.
Of course there’s politics involved… there always is. But Garrett also wants to ride the best horse for this race and for the future. Garrett is still one of Pletcher’s go-to riders… he loses the mount on Dunkirk, but both of the trainers know that Garrett had to make a decision and I highly doubt that either of them will refuse to give a mount in the future to the leading rider in the country just because he had to pick a Derby horse.
As for the news conference, I didn’t see it. However, no, I don’t think it was egotistical… it was realistic. The entire racing community was waiting for this news. Garrett’s at the top of the racing world right now and he knows it. The Derby picture was going to drastically change based on which horse this jockey chose. The ESPN coverage for the past couple weeks has been all about "who will Garrett choose" and which jockeys will switch mounts to take the horse that Garrett takes off of. If there’s any kind of breaking news that’s worthy of this type of a news conference in our sport, it’s this.
July 14th, 2010 at 9:37 am
Hard to say i’ll make a case for both:
DUNKIRK: PROS:
1) 108 beyer 2nd fastest out of 3yos (1st Quality Road 113)
2) Great closing Kick
3) exceptional speed
CONS: 1) Inexperienced
2) Closer so will be very wide late on the turn closing
3) No 2yo foundation
POTH: PROS:
1) Expirenced ran from 2yos till now
2) Won 4 in a Row
3) Unbeaten w/ Gomez
CONS: 1) Wins aren’t pretty, biggest win was 3 1/2 lengths
2) highest beyer is 96
3) DOesn’t have exceptional speed
July 14th, 2010 at 9:37 am
I don’t know about the news conference, I didn’t see that.
My belief is that Dunkirk is sitting on top of a real break-out race, but it might be the Preakness rather than the Derby. I like Dunkirk, I think he has awesome potential. But he may not be as tight as he needs to be for the Derby. I’m sure he got a lot of good experience in the Florida Derby; as a result of this, I will bet dollars to donuts that in the Kentucky Derby, he won’t be as far back early in the race as he was in the Florida Derby. I think his connections know that he cannot give up so much real estate early in the race against top horses and expect to close the gap.
So if he’s closer early, is Dunkirk ready? That’s what I’m not sure of. And maybe that’s what figured in Gomez’ choice: that the Derby may not be Dunkirk’s breakout race, it may be the next race after that.
Pioneerof The Nile is a good horse, but riddle me this: how often does a stakes horse win five in a row? I think POTN is good but not that good. I don’t think he’s going to win this one, I just don’t think he’s the kind of horse that can make the Kentucky Derby his fifth graded stakes win in a row. I also think there’s a chance that POTN may have gone over the top with the SA Derby and be on the downward side of peak. He’s been wound tight and training hard for a long enough time for wear and tear to start to catch up to him.
Between the two horses, if it was my choice, I’d have gone with Dunkirk; I’d figure that even if he doesn’t win the Derby, if he comes out of the race in good shape, he’s set up for the Preakness. If POTN doesn’t win the Derby, I think he’s through for the rest of the Triple Crown, which leaves his jockey without a mount.
July 14th, 2010 at 9:37 am
BOTH HORSES HAVE A SLIM CHANCE OF WINNING THE DERBY.
July 14th, 2010 at 9:37 am
Hi Mike,
I am sure the decision made by Gomez was not a lone decision. I am sure his agent had a big part in his choosing POTN. And I would have made the same decision. While Regal Ransom is at the top of the graded earnings with $1,250,000, POTN is a close second with $1,193,250. Dunkirk is down the list at # 16 with $150,000. Those figures are from today. Gomez is no dummy, and knows the best horse for the job. And Karin C is mistaken about him not having a ride. He is the leading rider in the country, and you can bet he will have a ride win or lose the Derby. And I also agree 100% with Knmiama on her views on this one