How are the odds for sports betting (like football) calculated?
In theory, odds are set by the amount of money bet. Do Vegas sports book set the odds on sports gambling, or only the opening line or do they adjust as money comes in. l notice that almost all the casinos have the same odds per game (or close too it) & wonder how that can be, l have trouble believing that the betting pool is the same in all casinos.
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May 31st, 2011 at 11:21 am
theres several ways to look at it –
1. is most oddsmakers/casinos/offshore books have their own experts who make lines – this is based on power ratings and a few other factors – almost all "sharps" as they are known or professional bettors have the same ratings – yes some argue some people have larger differences in ratings than others – but more often then not – the books and pro’s are dealing with the same info – they know the same things – if they say a team is a -9 point favorite over team B – there is not going to be a LARGE group of people that think the real spread is closer to 3 or closer to 14
2. YES books do move the line a point or sometimes MORE based on the flow of money that comes in on a particular team. HOWEVER there are not alot of teams/games that have HUGE swings from the opening line to the closing line- there is a couple reasons for this.
Most games you can always find 2 people who can make an arguement for taking either side of a game.
so your not going to have many games where EVERYONE is just betting only one side.
Say Nebraska is playing UL Lafeyette or Baylor – and the spread is -29 and the money comes in at volumes on Nebraska – they might move the line to -31 or -32 but your not gonna have the line go up to say -38 by kickoff
the BIG reason for this is because Sportsbooks understand that there are highly sophisticated bettors who bet based on perceived VALUE in the line alone – if a spread is -29 and they move it all the way to -38 because NO ONE is betting the underdog – this book is left EXPOSED to BOTH sides winning and the game being middled. ALSO sophisticated bettors who bet on value often can bet with HUGE amounts of money. so a book is only going to move a spread so many points before they have to accept they are going to be heavy on ONE side.
in fact most games the books know and understand that they will be heavy on one side – rarely do they really have equal action on both sides. Ultimately the books just want to make a competitive line that draws action – does not generate too much wiseguy action due to large line movement and they hope that the public is WRONG and THEY end up making a profit on the game itself
This is why most games All casinos and books will have roughly the same line on each game and why there is NOT a big variance in the pointspreads between different books.
Hope this answers your question!
May 31st, 2011 at 11:21 am
The odds are set by the same formula for college football, basketball, NFL, NBA……the lines can be influenced by events or money flow. I know how to figure the odds before they are listed by Vegas, it is a very helpful tool in winning bets.
May 31st, 2011 at 11:21 am
Lines/spreads are calculated by oddsmakers. They turn and sell them to sportsbooks. This is why they all have similar opening lines. Depending on the action that a bookmaker gets on particular events, they will adjust them in hopes of getting equal action on both sides. This is how they make money, the vig is highest when there is equal action on both sides. So, in theory, "favorites" are only favored by skill to a point. At some point, favorites or dogs seal their fate as such by the public’s money.
May 31st, 2011 at 11:21 am
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