in a race with a lot of horses? Is it better to pick a favorite to win? Or to try pick one least expected to?
I love horses and now is the peak season for high stakes horse racing which have already been run. My trouble is I cant pick a winner. Like the less horses in a race the easier it is? So the opposite is true with more horses. Last years Kentucky Derby was like a stampede right out of the gate? So any suggestions? The Kentucky Derby is the 1st Saturday in May. What does anyone expert or guesser like me think? A favorite 1/1 or maybe 12/1 or higher for this years race in 2009?
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July 12th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
Well, if you like a horse that runs at or near the lead, it shouldn’t make much difference how many horses are running. But a horse that comes from behind has greater potential for issues in larger fields, that’s natural.
If you’ve ever watched a race with just three horses where the likelihood of traffic trouble is low, you may have noticed the best horse on form doesn’t always win. That is because it is more difficult for a jockey to judge pace (speed) in a very small field.
As to the Kentucky Derby, you’re watching the equivalent of young boys trying to do something they’ve never done before (run a mile and a quarter). Who knows which will be mature enough, and have the stamina under great pressure and obstacles to succeed.
July 12th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
All races are different, depends on the horses and jockeys, the going, course, and a whole heap of other factors.
I never pick a horse because it is the favourite, or not.
I look for horses with a little form in their past 4 or 5 races that look like they have a chance of winning. Good jockey, good trainer, right course and distance, not over exposed but racing against exposed horses. If my fancy is on offer at odds greater than the number of horss with better form, I bet it.
Hope this is helpful.
As an example one of my bets today is Olympic Dream in Musselburghs’ 15:20 race.
July 12th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
More horses does not mean it is easier or harder. I have seen races with 10 or 12 horses but 9 of them are absolute dogs. On the other hand, I have seen 6 horse races that are really tough. My advice is too learn how to read the racing form. I look at a few things 1) the level of racing each horse has run in. usually horses that have run against higher level horses do well. 2) Look at the distance and types of surfaces the horse has run on 3) Look for hot jockey/trainer combination’s 4) pace, pace, pace: Usually, horses are creatures of habit. certain horses like to run from the front, middle or behind. I like to look for horses that run from the front and do not have more than one other horse who runs from the front. Sometimes they can run out front and dictate how fast or slow the race is run. The derby is notorious for long shots because of the number of horses in the race. By the way, racing luck is a big part of the race, too