Is Calvin Bo-rail proving maybe the rail in the Kentucky Derby isn't so bad after all?
Look at the wins with Street Sense and in yesterdays Kentucky Derby.
I’ve thought it a bit strange how horseman usually avoid the rail when choosing posts in the Kentucky Derby. Last year, even though he won, Big Brown took post 20 with the inside posts 1,2 open; this year Desert Party took post 19 with 1-2 open, not to say that he would have fared any better, but throughout the entire thoroughbred meet the inside posts always win the highest % of the time, especially in route races (two turns); so when it comes to the Derby the rail is avoided because there’s more horses? And would running style really matter if you had a speed horse or closer breaking from either post 19 or post 1? Can’t say I fully understand.
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July 3rd, 2010 at 4:36 pm
Generally, in route races, the stamina is the key. Post positions don’t matter. It looks so, that MTB won y-day, & SS in 2007, but they had stamina & on top of that, they got lucky to have that room to move forward. Anybody in that position could have won. With sprint races, may be it matters.
Other factors also come into play, eg class, form, etc. Running style has to be to stay as close as possible, to the leader, until the final furlong. With such a long distance ( & 2 turns), even the margin of 15 lengths looks closer enough to beat the rest of the field alongwith the leader. The favorite Friesan Fire was also in the back of the pack, but FF couldn’t even improve his position. FF never got any chance/room, besides being bumped at the start.
Good luck for the next year’s Derby !!
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:36 pm
It depends on the horse’s running style whether or not it’s advantageous to ride the rail. With a horse that likes to be near the front, the inside posts can be a disadvantage because the horse can get trapped on the rail.
Street Sense and Mine That Bird are deep closers, so Borel moved over to the rail from middle posts, after the pack had cleared. But he rode Rachel Alexandra up the middle of the track the day before in the Oaks - she likes to be in front or near the front.
Big Brown also liked to be up front, so an outside post was better for him.
I also think Borel is fearless and other jockeys just don’t have the nerve to skim the rail like that. And retired jockey Gary Steven’s said words to that effect on HRTV today.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:36 pm
I was watching the racing channel earlier races for Derby Day. The network analyst themselfs noticed how the winners were taking to the inside rail. It is the shortest route but they also noted that though the surface itself was sloppy that maybe underneath the footing for the horse running that groove might be finding firmer footing than the rest of the track itself. And then the post position especially on the rail depends on how quick the #1 horse and jockey get out so they can really take advantge. The outside post horses as soon as the gate opens are already cutting toward that inside route…thus all the jostling and bumping at the start of a race.. You are right about running style as proved by the winner. A smart jocky controls the race from out of the starting gate to finish. If he has the right horse with the speed and endurance for a full flat out run see holes weave his mount around and through openings then post position doesn’t matter but he will still avoid the longer outside route and steer to the inside as much as possible. Yesterdays Kentucky Derby was a classic example of a good horse and a smart jocky working as a team. Right from a slow start to passing horses all through the backstretch around the turns and even the owner admitted he had no idea where his horse was at until the horse was visible by itself flat out down the home stretch.. And down the stretch they come… .