Which horse is going to win the Kentucky Derby this weekend (2009)! Any suggestions?
Which horse is going to win the Kentucky Derby this weekend! I’m taking suggestions?
I’m planning to bet on the race, although I have no knowledge of horses. I promise I will review all submitted answers and will give best choice after the race. I though it would be interesting to open up for discussion. Im looking to bet a few horses to place and might bet a 3 horse exacta box?
Any help would be greatly appreciated!!!
Now is your chance to get your win recognized without costing money.
1. West Side Bernie odds at 30-1
2. Musket Man odds at 20-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff odds at 30-1
4. Advice odds at 30-1
5. Hold me back odds at 15-1
6. Friesan Fire odds at 6-1
7. Papa Clem odds at 20-1
8. Mine that Bird odds at 50-1
9. Join in the Dance odds at 50-1
10. Regal Ransom odds at 30-1
11. Chocolate Candy odds at 20-1
12. General Quarters odds at 20-1
13. I want revenge odds at 3-1
14. Atomic Rain odds at 50-1
15. Dunkirk odds at 4-1
16. Pioneer of the nile odds at 4-1
17. Summer Bird odds at 50-1
18. Nowhere to Hide odds at 50-1
19. Desert Party odds at 15-1
20. Flying Private odds at 50-1
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June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
Dunkirk, papa clem
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
I’m leaning toward Friesian Fire to be honest. I believe he has a lot of potential in this race. I’m big on pedigree, and Friesian Fire has it all. He’s the grandson of Seattle Slew, great grandson of Secretariat, and half brother of Rags to Riches. I know that pedigree rarely factors in to how a horse races, but you have to admit that this horse has got good lines.
Pioneer of the Nile is another favorite of mine. I do agree that he is being a little overrated, but I Want Revenge is too. Pioneer of the Nile has won his last four races and has beaten I Want Revenge. Although that was on synthetic turf. Again, with the bloodlines, Pioneer of the Nile is Empire Maker’s son. Even if this horse doesn’t win the Derby, he could definetely pull an upset at the Belmont.
Dunkirk also has potential, although I don’t like the fact that he is very lightly raced. He wasn’t raced much as a two year old, so I think he lacks experience. But his jockey might make up for that. Edgar Prado, also known as Barbaro’s jockey, has won over 5,000 races. Todd Pletcher is also a great trainer, he trained Rags to Riches. Again, I know that not many will care about bloodlines, but Dunkirk is the great great grandson of Secretariat.
Friesian Fire is my pick in the Kentucky Derby.
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
First of all Pioneerof the nile is not over-rated. hes only at 4-1 because so many horses are off the derby trail with injurys. Hes my pick to win. He’s won 4 straight graded stakes victories he has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter and if anyones actually paying attention to the derby trail he’s actually doing better on the dirt then on the synthetics.
hes bred for the dirt. he wont have any problem tomorrow
1. Pioneerof the Nile
See above
2. Desert Party/ I Want Revenge
I cant really decide
4. Regal Ransom
I think he can go gate to wire
5. Dunkirk
I think the fact that he has no 2 year foundation will kinda hurt him here.
Longshots
Hold Me Back
giving him the mulligan in first start on dirt
Chocolate Candy
jenny craig and candy ironic
Papa Clem
I think he might be just outclassed
Musket Man
He wont make the distance
Now Freisan fire can finish anywhere i just dont like the 7 week layoff
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
Thanks a lot for all this valuable information. I have printed out all info and now reviewing. Im Anticipating betting about $30.00 (im broke) and will base all picks from information on this page. I will post picks on the morning of the race, so please check back and see if I won any money on your info, lol. And happy derby day everybody.
dee
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
DUNKIRK OWNED BY THE MULTI MILLIONAIRE MICHAEL TABOR LETS HOPE HE WINS AS HE IS A GREAT SUPPORTER OF RACING AROUND THE WORLD
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
I like Friesan Fire, especially if the track is sloppy. I also like I Want Revenge because he’s proven he can handle trouble. I think Regal Ransom is dangerous. If he gets an easy pace for the first 1/4 mile, I can see him running away with it.
I also like General Quarters because I won some decent money on him in a race that he was given no chance to win.
I think Pioneerof the Nile is the most over-rated horse in the field for the following reasons:
1. It’s his first start on dirt. No horse has ever won the Derby in their first start on dirt
2. California based horses historically do poorly in the Derby. And much more impressive CA horses than POTN have failed miserably in the Derby.
3. He was dragging his jockey around in his last two starts. He doesn’t win the Derby acting like that.
4. Based on his behavior in his last two starts, I think he’s likely to throw one of his little tantrums when he gets pummeled in the face with dirt for the first time.
5. His speed figures border on the pathetic, especially when compared to the speed figures of his rivals.
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
I like Dunkirk, whose major upside is improvement in a career that does not have many races…it took a track record to keep him out of the winner’s circle in the Florida Derby. I wager exacta boxes and I will couple Dunkirk with Desert Party, who has had two weeks of solid workouts at Churchill Downs. If I am looking for a real home run, I will play a trifecta box with the two mentioned and Hold Me Back.
If you are playing win or win-place-show, I would wager on Dunkirk, if you have to pick one runner I mentioned.
June 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
For what it’s worth, here’s my take.
West Side Bernie - His best hope for a check is a hot pace and I don’t think we’ll see one .
Musket Man - no name trainer and he avoided facing any of the major prep fields but he has won 5 of 6 career races. He has a chance to finish in the bottom of the gimmicks.
Mr. Hot Stuff made the field by finishing 3rd in two graded stakes. I read where a lot of people at CD think he looks very good and likes the track. Personally, I don’t think he’ll finish in the top 5 and I can’t get excited about a horse in the Kentucky Derby who just broke his maiden a couple months back. At 30/1 ML you might consider him for the bottom of the Super if you’re loading up with horses at the bottom.
Advice - the advice is - Toss him!
Hold Me Back - Here’s another horse I think could fill the bottom of the gimmicks. No problem with the connections - Mott & Desormeaux - but the only time this pony missed the board was the only time he ran on dirt - and that’s a big concern. If you think there will be a fast early pace, then you’ll like this horse to be passing horses down the lane. Definite user at the bottom of the gimmicks.
Friesan Fire - While the 3 FG preps weren’t the toughest of fields this year, FF won each one going away - and each performance was better than the previous one with the last being a 7+ length romp in the mud over Papa Clem. I have read concerns that the horse has been lightly trainer which is not Jones’ style but I’m thinking that after watching Hard Spun and Eight Belles come up short he may be thinking he needed to leave a little more in the tank. I’m not that concerned about the blow out work last Monday. I have a concern about the jock’s lack of big race experience but I know this horse is dead fit and hope he doesn’t get involved in a sprint with Join In the Dance in the early going. At 5-1 he’ll be my win wager even though I think IWR is the top pick in the race.
Papa Clem - He has a slim chance to win but I love this guy in the gimmicks at 20/1 - not so much for his ability but for his jockey. Bejarano is 4/2-2-0 on him and Bejarano’s been part of the tri almost 60% of the time this year. If they counted the 4th spot in the Super, that number might be over 70%.
Mine That Bird - Don’t mind that bird
Join In The Dance - Sit this dance out
Regal Ranson & Desert Party -
The Prince breeds a couple hundred horses or more a year using the best stallions and mares money can buy (and he has more than almost anybody else on earth) and then spends millions more at the sales every year buying the best bred colts on earth. If he leaves those colts over here - he gives them to Eoin, Kieren and Tom Albertrani. Everytime one of those 3 develops a pony that looks like it might be a good one - Suroor yanks him away and brings him over to Dubai. Suroor has, arguably, a stable of the best TBs in the world to work with. With all that talent for all those years you would think he would have won every big race everywhere in the world at least 50% of the time - but when considering all the top horse flesh he’s trained, his record over here is very poor in the big races - Derby and BC. I think he’s not a very good trainer based on those stats considering the horse flesh he’s had to work with.
Until the Prince starts leaving the best colts in the country over here to train with some of the top trainers over here, I can’t seriously consider one of his ponies to win the Derby. It will eventually happen and when it does, assuming Suroor is still the trainer, I won’t have a dime on him; but so far, betting against Suroor has proven to be the right decision. However, I do think you need to consider one or both for the gimmicks.
Chocolate Candy - This horse is very competitive (part of the tri in the last 7 races including 3 graded stakes) and looks like a stayer but was never given the chance to answer the question if he could handle the dirt. The CD dirt has always been labeled “cuppy” and some very, very good horses have struggled with that surface - Skip Away comes to mind first. I really doubt this horse will go off near the 20/1 morning line but he’s a must use in all the gimmicks and as a long shot choice in the Pick-3.
General Quarters - Ok, yes, this is just what horse racing needs - a $20,000.00 claim, one horse stable wins the Derby for his 80 year old owner. Shades of Kurt Warner. The Bluegrass field was suspect at best and this race isn‘t a Hollywood Movie. Sorry horse lovers - he finishes up the track.
I Want Revenge. He’s the favorite and deserves to be. He’s my top pick to win it but the win money will be on FF as noted above. He became a monster when moved to dirt, destroyed the Gotham field and went from worst to first in the Wood without the benefit of a hot pace.. He can sit 2 or 3 back or 5 or 6 back and still dominate everything in front of him. If the splits are around par f