Who should I pick to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby and why?
My girlfriend is big into horses (she owns one and is an eventer) and she has her pick for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. I have to choose, and my pick was just pulled out (eskenereya or however you spell it, I’m not really sure). So someone who knows about this stuff please tell me who I should pick to win. I really don’t know a lot about the race or the horses, just a good amount about eventing that I’ve learned from my girlfriend. If possible, please give me reasons why I should pick that specific horse. Thanks!
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May 31st, 2010 at 4:50 pm
I’m disappointed Eskendereya is out of the Derby too, but it’s absolutely the best thing if he not healthy. I respected Todd Pletcher as a trainer, he always does the right thing for his horses.
Anyway, Sidney’s Candy is not only one of the other favorites, but one of mine too, an I feel is an excellent choice..he runs hard every race..I like a horse that runs off the pace too, one thing is, Sidney’s Candy has to prove he can deal with fast pace and be quick enough to hold off the deep closers.
However, he should be a decent value, but that may change now that Eskendereya is out of the Derby. As said above Eskendereya, was the strong favorite for Saturday’s 136th Kentucky Derby, and was withdrawn from the race Sunday morning because of swelling in his left front leg, per trainer Todd Pletcher.
Beside considering the favorites in the Derby..I have to stick with what I’ve said many times, I feel Ice Box has a good chance to win the Derby…of course, anything can happen in a field of 20. I Look for Horses with good tactical speed and the ability to stalk, they have preference over pure speed or rally from way back types. Proven ability to handle bad traffic situations is also a plus in the Kentucky Derby. Ice Box meets all those. Ice Box - He broke his maiden in October at the Meadowlands, and then followed that up with an allowance win at Gulfstream in January. He made his stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on February 20, finishing 5th beaten 12 lengths, and then came back to win the Florida Derby (G1) on March 20 earning a career-best 99 Beyer. And, should go the distance with no problem.
Good Luck to you and your girl ! Enjoy the Race !
May 31st, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Lookin At Lucky, has proven himself at the highest level. He was last years Eclipse Award-winning 2 year old after an awesome season, that saw him go up 5 for 6 with three Grade 1 wins. He seems to get overcome trouble as in some traffic issues in his last races, however, he still won the Grade 2 Rebel stakes…and he has proven to handle dirt well…he’s only fault is that he seems to find trouble..lol… He should be 6-1 on Derby Day..Great Trainer and Jockey combo in Bob Baffart & Garrett Gomez. Lookin At Lucky is my choice!
May 31st, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Sidneys Candy will get ate alive by all the speed horses in this derby, 6 maybe 8 horses are front runners, they will kill each other and thats just a fact. Eskenadraya had by far the best preps but he’s not running now. Be careful about a few things when picking your derby horses. 1- try to bet horses that have run on dirt, your racing form shows this on the far right side for each horse, Sidneys Candy has raced only on the "fake" racing surfaces, horses from Santa Anita, Keenland and other "fake" surfaces just may not handle real dirt under their feet.
Looking At Lucky is an unreal bet on this race. He may not win but he will be there somewhere. He lost twice and both times Garrett Gomez was the reason. Last year in the Breeders Cup he barely lost and his jockey was bumping all thru the stretch,,, not to mention he really timed his move poorly. He ran 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and this is great, watch the replay and watch close to the #3 horse, as they get to the far turn the #3 cant keep up and sees Gomez (his hated rival that was fighting with him in the jocks lounge) coming up the inside rail he simply comes down on Lucky and blast him into the fence, Lucky gets rolling again and runs third.
Now watch the Rebel replay at Oaklawn Park, A RACE RUN ON REAL DIRT. Lucky actually clipped heals with another and shifted course and ran by them all, add more ground with that long Derby stretch and he’s the one to beat.
Another example of my "real dirt" theory is Exhi, he has made only 17K of his 284K running on real dirt, but I guarantee you he will get bet on Derby day, and get crushed like a bug, crushed like a Sidneys Candy!!!
Just a huge tip if you bet the races all day and you see horses that ran a great race at Keenland and it was there only good race, DO NOT BET THEM, keep your money in your pocket, I have huge days of profit on Derby day not because I’m so good,,,,, but because most of the betting is so poor by everyone else.
May 31st, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Now that Eskendereya is out;
"Super Saver" with Jockey Calvin Borel,
The jock that brought in the 50-1 longshot (Mind that Bird) last year.
It will be about 10-1 to 15-1
with "Sidneys Candy" and "Ice Box" and "Lookin to be lucky"
(Box them all in the TRI cost $24.00)